Anxiety is not good. Sounds silly but it is a fact that must be dealy with.
Dealing with anxiety is dealing with yourself and your emotions. Anxiety is pushing you to the limit and once you feel on the edge it's all going wrong. Anxiety makes you impatient and brings forth the desire to make things fast, to achive what you think is necessary.
But in the end what is that important that it always makes you want more? Is it the GREED in you? Why you just can't have enough of what you already have? Why want more?
I believe that it will be only then when you actually want none that you will be able to value what you already have and things will start working cuz right now the pressure I exert on myself is making things very tense...
Once anxiety and impatience are lost and left behind then the calm will regain ground and the natural ruthm will be ruling over. One must not fight but go with the flow as it is the natural way of life.
Kamis, 04 Oktober 2007
IMPATIENCE
What do you think? Rome was built in One day?
No it was not! So what's the use in trying to build it one day or one hour?
So far there was no reason of doing it - but I felt pushing myself to the limit and thus exerting enormous pressure over myself. It all comes back crushing all the time, experience, money and knowledge I have invested I have beeen investing in my attempt to become a successful FX speculator.
Not that I didn't have spectacular wins - but more that I have been sustainably blowing my account due to overleveraging each and every time.
> Remember!!! Leverage is there to kill little retail account like yours! And it is the intrinsic trait of every human being of being both GREEDY and IMPATIENT!
So this is how brokerages profit from the 99% group (the retails that always get fooled and always chase the tail of it...). They give you 200 to 400% leverage then go shoot yourself.
Not that it's not fantastic! No, actually it's pretty nice going on a ride with a 100k position for 100-200 pips... but how often it happens? How often one can succeed to hold onto the winning position? And how many times one runs the losing positions for much longer or gets scared for 10 pips spike - just to see it going in your dircetion afterwards...
So how you go on from here?
Must be patient! And I got to formulate a certain set of rules to trade by from here on.
Just for the record let's say that on Last Friday I had one of my best trades ever - hanged in a 151 pip ride in GBPUSD on the break of 2.0325 to the high 2.04 - actually from 2.0229 to 2.0440 - with a 120k position - well pretty nice - then on Monday got a great short GBPJPY trade for like 80 pips with a perfect trade management -taking profit on half and then letting the other half to catch the whole move...
And the crash afterwards: Monday till today (Thursday) was arange market and I just blew the account to 0!
So you see - it just doesn't work like that!
Had a great gain - then had to lay low, take a break, lower leverage, trade less, wait for the right setup ---- what else?
Inretrospective I can see all the big mistakes. I made every possible mistake that could be made. So from now on I have all the knowledge, skills and experience to make this thing work.
Only thing is IMPATIENCE I have to fight with... Trading little gives no great profits but for the time being it can protect from losing big until the right setups come and until the rules start to kick in...
That's how it must work!
No it was not! So what's the use in trying to build it one day or one hour?
So far there was no reason of doing it - but I felt pushing myself to the limit and thus exerting enormous pressure over myself. It all comes back crushing all the time, experience, money and knowledge I have invested I have beeen investing in my attempt to become a successful FX speculator.
Not that I didn't have spectacular wins - but more that I have been sustainably blowing my account due to overleveraging each and every time.
> Remember!!! Leverage is there to kill little retail account like yours! And it is the intrinsic trait of every human being of being both GREEDY and IMPATIENT!
So this is how brokerages profit from the 99% group (the retails that always get fooled and always chase the tail of it...). They give you 200 to 400% leverage then go shoot yourself.
Not that it's not fantastic! No, actually it's pretty nice going on a ride with a 100k position for 100-200 pips... but how often it happens? How often one can succeed to hold onto the winning position? And how many times one runs the losing positions for much longer or gets scared for 10 pips spike - just to see it going in your dircetion afterwards...
So how you go on from here?
Must be patient! And I got to formulate a certain set of rules to trade by from here on.
Just for the record let's say that on Last Friday I had one of my best trades ever - hanged in a 151 pip ride in GBPUSD on the break of 2.0325 to the high 2.04 - actually from 2.0229 to 2.0440 - with a 120k position - well pretty nice - then on Monday got a great short GBPJPY trade for like 80 pips with a perfect trade management -taking profit on half and then letting the other half to catch the whole move...
And the crash afterwards: Monday till today (Thursday) was arange market and I just blew the account to 0!
So you see - it just doesn't work like that!
Had a great gain - then had to lay low, take a break, lower leverage, trade less, wait for the right setup ---- what else?
Inretrospective I can see all the big mistakes. I made every possible mistake that could be made. So from now on I have all the knowledge, skills and experience to make this thing work.
Only thing is IMPATIENCE I have to fight with... Trading little gives no great profits but for the time being it can protect from losing big until the right setups come and until the rules start to kick in...
That's how it must work!
Rabu, 03 Oktober 2007
Market Modes
Market modes:
1. Trend
2. Consolidation / Range
Well, we know first that it depends on the timeframe, however we can easily discern those 2 modes in which market operates based on Hourlies.
Yes - one can easily look at the Daily chart for a direction - then watching the Hourly helps as a guide to what is the market really going to do. If Daily chart has a signal - one always needs the Hourly to precise the Entry and Exit strategy.
> TREND --- Remember! The market moves in TREND like 10-20 % of the time - and that's whenthe big moves materialize... then you have the other say 80% of the time for Accumulation / Distribution phaze.
> RANGE --- Remember! Once there was a big move the market will need time to digest and the new Accumulation/Distribution cycle begins - Big players unload their inventories on tops where retail accounts buy the Highs - - once there are no more buyers the market retraces 50% and you have another A/D cycle...
So basically range market takes most of the time since players need to make their minds - weak hands must give in and Big Players need to Accumulate/Distribute new inventory...
RANGE / Consolidation phaze can also be attributed as a Search & Destroy campaign for floor specialists, big Investment firms and especially Large Interbank players which have better info on stops and positions in the market and they try to gun the stops and always move in the direction that is most vulnerable...
E.g. if retail accounts are like 80% long the EURUSD - it is easy for Big players to move through the 99% crowd as this the direction of Least Resistance as most already are Long and there is no more cash to Support that campaign.
TREND / RANGE - Distinguishing the market Modus Operandi is not easy but Bollinger Bands which are designed to measure the Volatility can be of great use!
Some remarks from my Great Friend Oil Man:
> Most break happen on Friday as players square positons.
> Range days are mostly Monday and Thursday as Friday positons are in the process of Accumulation/Distribution.
> Wednesday to Friday are when most trends materialise - - also due to the carry interest swap points players long the High yielders against the YEN as Wednesday is a 3-day rollover.
1. Trend
2. Consolidation / Range
Well, we know first that it depends on the timeframe, however we can easily discern those 2 modes in which market operates based on Hourlies.
Yes - one can easily look at the Daily chart for a direction - then watching the Hourly helps as a guide to what is the market really going to do. If Daily chart has a signal - one always needs the Hourly to precise the Entry and Exit strategy.
> TREND --- Remember! The market moves in TREND like 10-20 % of the time - and that's whenthe big moves materialize... then you have the other say 80% of the time for Accumulation / Distribution phaze.
> RANGE --- Remember! Once there was a big move the market will need time to digest and the new Accumulation/Distribution cycle begins - Big players unload their inventories on tops where retail accounts buy the Highs - - once there are no more buyers the market retraces 50% and you have another A/D cycle...
So basically range market takes most of the time since players need to make their minds - weak hands must give in and Big Players need to Accumulate/Distribute new inventory...
RANGE / Consolidation phaze can also be attributed as a Search & Destroy campaign for floor specialists, big Investment firms and especially Large Interbank players which have better info on stops and positions in the market and they try to gun the stops and always move in the direction that is most vulnerable...
E.g. if retail accounts are like 80% long the EURUSD - it is easy for Big players to move through the 99% crowd as this the direction of Least Resistance as most already are Long and there is no more cash to Support that campaign.
TREND / RANGE - Distinguishing the market Modus Operandi is not easy but Bollinger Bands which are designed to measure the Volatility can be of great use!
Some remarks from my Great Friend Oil Man:
> Most break happen on Friday as players square positons.
> Range days are mostly Monday and Thursday as Friday positons are in the process of Accumulation/Distribution.
> Wednesday to Friday are when most trends materialise - - also due to the carry interest swap points players long the High yielders against the YEN as Wednesday is a 3-day rollover.
Selasa, 07 Agustus 2007
TRADING & EMOTIONS
What is the other adverse factor affecting trading performance (and life in general)?
EMOTIONS -- for sure!
For example I had problems with my girlfriend, didn't go to training and felt sorry about that - well, too many things one can think of...
The idea however is not to categorize those emotions but to get rid of them. Successful and most importantly SUSTAINABLE trading will only be possible if one achieves to be DETACHED from emotions.
Because emotions stir the mind and this leads to WRONG trading DECISIONS or to UNABILITY TO ACT when in a losing position!
REMEMBER: Even if my trading analysis is wrong - I would have better chances for success if I act upon a set of reasonable Money Management rules which are in accordance with the Equity size. Then if you are right but you OVERLEVERAGE due to emotions (greed is one I can think of..) then the first wrong decision will wipe you out!!!
=> Trading is Business. Business never personal.
EMOTIONS -- for sure!
For example I had problems with my girlfriend, didn't go to training and felt sorry about that - well, too many things one can think of...
The idea however is not to categorize those emotions but to get rid of them. Successful and most importantly SUSTAINABLE trading will only be possible if one achieves to be DETACHED from emotions.
Because emotions stir the mind and this leads to WRONG trading DECISIONS or to UNABILITY TO ACT when in a losing position!
REMEMBER: Even if my trading analysis is wrong - I would have better chances for success if I act upon a set of reasonable Money Management rules which are in accordance with the Equity size. Then if you are right but you OVERLEVERAGE due to emotions (greed is one I can think of..) then the first wrong decision will wipe you out!!!
=> Trading is Business. Business never personal.
LEVERAGE
Well, after so many times being margined-out I have to stop now and spend some time recollecting the worst of my mistakes and putting down a systematic approach to my efforts.
One major goal is standing in front of the trader (and every man in general) -- it is the goal to be SUSTAINABLY SUCCESSFUL.
Saying that let's see how we can minimise the adverse factors that would hamper this mission:
LEVERAGE - in common language it's called GREED. I can frankly say that this is the single most important problem I have been facing all these years.
I got stopped out because of unreasonably over-leveraged positions so many times that I can't even remember the number. That's funny but what I'm trying to say is that nothing can happen in a week or two!!! At least not to me!
So the way is to trade following a basic set of rules first of which is to trade according to your Account size... this certainly means NOT to put 75% of the EQUITY on a single trade...
The problem is of course PSYCHOLOGICAL - the size of the position makes you feel petrified in the face of the adversely going position. What is worse - even when in profit I start to think it can easily go much more and don't take profits - until I take a loss or square for a meager profit..
So one has to enter the market only with positions that don't affect his analytical potential.
-----------------------------
Another thing is other peoples' systems and the information flow.
One has to develop a system or a set ot rules that work for him becasue until one is distracted and acts upon other's signals or systems it will always lead to loss..
Even the best trader gives you signals - they might work just great for him but I for example can't take advantage because I don't have an understanding of the inner workings of the system - so I can't really discern when the system gives stronger signal and when not..
This easily is transferred to mis-managing the position sizes -- one starts to weight different sizes according to his view and that might not be in tune with the original model..
So - find what works for you and start taking advantage of it.
Enough for now.
One major goal is standing in front of the trader (and every man in general) -- it is the goal to be SUSTAINABLY SUCCESSFUL.
Saying that let's see how we can minimise the adverse factors that would hamper this mission:
LEVERAGE - in common language it's called GREED. I can frankly say that this is the single most important problem I have been facing all these years.
I got stopped out because of unreasonably over-leveraged positions so many times that I can't even remember the number. That's funny but what I'm trying to say is that nothing can happen in a week or two!!! At least not to me!
So the way is to trade following a basic set of rules first of which is to trade according to your Account size... this certainly means NOT to put 75% of the EQUITY on a single trade...
The problem is of course PSYCHOLOGICAL - the size of the position makes you feel petrified in the face of the adversely going position. What is worse - even when in profit I start to think it can easily go much more and don't take profits - until I take a loss or square for a meager profit..
So one has to enter the market only with positions that don't affect his analytical potential.
-----------------------------
Another thing is other peoples' systems and the information flow.
One has to develop a system or a set ot rules that work for him becasue until one is distracted and acts upon other's signals or systems it will always lead to loss..
Even the best trader gives you signals - they might work just great for him but I for example can't take advantage because I don't have an understanding of the inner workings of the system - so I can't really discern when the system gives stronger signal and when not..
This easily is transferred to mis-managing the position sizes -- one starts to weight different sizes according to his view and that might not be in tune with the original model..
So - find what works for you and start taking advantage of it.
Enough for now.
Senin, 06 Agustus 2007
as pointed 2.0288 provides good support (0.618 of the move 2.0460 -- 20.181)
> so I'm long heavily at 2.0314 for a retest of the highs - first target 2.0530..
-> other details to note is the Directional Movement Indicator ready to give a Up signal as the +DI is ready to cross the -Di from below..
-> RSI (9 period) is slowly going above the center line.
-> Momentum is in its lows which might suggest a low is in place or in the making..
Let's see..
Kamis, 02 Agustus 2007
USDJPY - Weekly Support trend line..
What I wonder is how to qualify the three recent Hihgs in Oct'06 -- Jan'07 -- June'07:
=> Diagonal Triple top formation or
=> H&S Pattern (However a bit unorthodox sample - since shoulders are the same size as the head) -- this actually is more like of a oscillating within the Uptrending Channel..
I think that this Support line is key to the next phase of Carry trades and the Stock markets since once the Yen strenghtens to 115 it will be an alarm (it held in Dec'06 & March'07).
::> The real test however is the 112.70 (200 day MA).
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