Rabu, 10 Juni 2009

Jesse Livermore on suckers and trends...

This is quote from Edwin Lefevre's 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator':

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand. That was what my
conservatism did for me. About the time I discovered what a small percentage of what I should have made I was getting I discovered something else, and that is that suckers differ among themselves according to the degree of experience.

The tyro knows nothing, and everybody, including himself, knows it. But the next, or second, grade thinks he knows a great deal and makes others feel that way too. He is the experienced sucker, who has studied—not the market itself but a few remarks about the market made by a still higher grade of suckers.

The second-grade sucker knows how to keep from losing his money in some of the ways that get the raw beginner. It is this semisucker rather than the 100 per cent article who is the real all-the-year-round support of the commission houses. He lasts about three and a half years on an average, as compared with a single season of from three to thirty weeks, which is the usual Wall Street life of a first offender. It is naturally the semisucker who is always quoting the famous trading aphorisms and the various rules of the game. He knows all the don'ts that ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers—excepting the principal one, which is: Don't be a sucker!

This semisucker is the type that thinks he has cut his wisdom teeth because he loves to buy on declines. He waits for them. He measures his bargains by the number of points it has sold off from the top. In big bull markets the plain unadulterated sucker, utterly ignorant of rules and precedents, buys blindly because he hopes blindly. He makes most of the money—until one of the healthy reactions takes it away from him at one fell swoop.

But the Careful Mike sucker does what I did when I thought I was playing the game intelligently—according to the intelligence of others. I knew I needed to change my bucket-shop methods and I thought I was solving my problem with any change, particularly one that assayed high gold values according to the experienced traders among the customers.

Most—-let us call 'em customers—-are alike. You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn't owe them money. In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips—that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again—when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed
him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same.

The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?" Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"

Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.

Senin, 08 Juni 2009

GOLD daily chart - 08.06.2009



Gold has been a trendy asset as I have seen multiple sources say it is the only store of wealth in the coming hyper-inflation. Well, I'm not that smart to divine the future.

Anyway technically I see it falling.

First there is the present configuration of 5 consequent down-up-down-up-down days.
The range is expanded each day while the highs have a flat line - similar to the Tweezer Top candle pattern. I see he first indication of a fall in closing below the 13 MVA as it supported the rise from the start of May.

RSI is close to crossing the 50 level and thus close to supporting the correction theme.
ADX which I favor as a trend indicator of choice tells me the Uptrend not only lost its steam but also there is impending DI+ cross down the DI- - a signal of going Short.

I would be watching with interest the 920 level for signs of an easy penetration which would open a gap towards 880 where I anticipate to see the 200 MVA in the coming days.

USD/CAD Weekly chart - 08.06.2009



USD/CAD weekly is very similar to the USD Index chart.

Please note carefully the upper trading range of the Sept'08 - April'09 distribution phase was approximately 1000 pips (1.18 - 1.28). Here is a good place to underline the importance of the long shadows of the weekly nadles that reach up to the 1.30 area. This is exteemly valuable information and I'd like to remember it very well as it was a good indication that the 'goose' had problems flying that high.

Well as we see the 3-rd attempt to break above 1.28 in April was rejected. There is a nice Bearish Engulfment right at the top and the Downtrend ensued.

Here is a great note to measured moves. Now if we witness a 1000 pip trading range - once its borders are broken we can easily expect a rotation of the same extent to the other side ot border that has bent.

So once the 1.18 was broken the trend took the price down to 1.08. Now here we encounter 2 major Supports. One is the 89-week MVA and the other is the fact that 1.08 was a long term resistance level as shown on the chart. While the price is now in the middle of the 1.08 - 1.18 range I suggest we wait for a clear signal on the direction.

CRB Index Weekly chart - 08.06.2009



The ADX is signalling a Long position by the DI+ crossing above the DI-.

However the Trend strength is fading. I assume that right now there will be some confusion between the Inlationary pressure and the "Green shoots" themes while the market chooses which one should be prevailing.

Kamis, 21 Mei 2009

Contrarian Thinking

I read Market Wizards again now after 1 year of study on trend-following, counter trend trading and so on... I was really thinking there is a perfect system or some people that rally exactly know why smtg moves -- so after all trading in different modes and different markets I feel now a bit "baptized by fire" and got back to basics.

Mark Douglas is very true that people don't think trading is casino - but as I see those 95% group must be doing exactly this.

I was thinking after I read "Trend Following" as I started looking for trend systems. There are just as great "Trend-followers" as much as those that are labelled "Contra-traders". I believe that the intuition of the discretionary trader is as much of a weapon as the faith in the long temr success of the trend system in the trend trader. They have different personalities and so are their trading styles..
However what they share is the true sense of success and that is most important.

What I want to clear is that what differentiates a Successful trader from the 95%. Let's take CONTRARIAN thinking for example:

1. When a market is making 20 or 50-day High and is very bullish, then going with the Strong trend is obvious?
But then how many are strong enough to buy the 20, 50, 89 or 200 Day High. Think most people will have this FEAR it is too high and have to retrace - so 95% group all starts to sell. A bit what happens with S&P last 2 months..

So then CONTRARIAN seems is to go with the trend as for the majority of people going with the flow is just too hard - most people think they have to struggle.

Think I read this in FF time ago that it takes 55-60% bullish sentiment for a rally - but a 90-95% bullish sentiment is a sure Trend reversal.

2. So again when the whole public is convinced - it is so easy to go with the crowd - but then it takes CONTRARIAN thinking to see that if everyone bought there is no one left to sell to.
.......................
think it is the psychological frame - then comes to the execution frame - which is where Risk management kicks in:
1. First to trade as little as to not lose your capital as then there is no more opportunity.

2. Take any trade with reasonal R/R since every next around the corner might be the winner - but take only a little hit so you can withstand the series of fake signals until the good trade kicks in.