Kamis, 14 Oktober 2010

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index near its 200-Week MA


Weekly chart shows CRB is on a Breakout mode and near its 200-Week MA.
Momentum is rising and trend strength is slowly kicking in.
Inflationary times are coming and judging from the chart they will have a long way to go.

Shanghai Composite - Momentum Persists!



Following on my previous call (http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2010/10/shanghai-composite-momentum-buy.html) on the Momentum strength in SSEC here we are above the 200-Day MA.

Next target is the confluence of the Trend Channel and the previous lows around 2950.

Rabu, 13 Oktober 2010

USD/JPY - A Tale of Trendlines and Anticipated Breakouts


USD/JPY Hourly Trendline - Works like a clockwork.
A question when it finally break to the upside remains.

Selasa, 12 Oktober 2010

US Dollar faces Reversal after FED Minutes suggest further QE

Weekly USD/JPY shows under the Long term Support line - there is possibility for a fake downbreak unless BOJ walks out of it..

Daily USD/JPY shows clear down channel that meets the trend line Support at this critical junction - my test scenario suggests we go for 84.

Nice horizontal Range withing the Rising Trend Channel in 4-hour EUR/USD - so we test 1.4 before we break lower or we see a failure right here?

Same case in 4-hour AUD/USD - Trend lines suggest we go for a test of 0.99 before a significant Resistance kicks in. The surprise will be an outright break here.


US Dollar Index looks like bottoming and yesterday candle resembles a Bullish Engulfment, however today's candle is not a good confirmation sign..
Momentum and RSI suggest we bounce off the Lows which are significant on the long term charts around 77 level and my guess is we see a wave of USD buying after the FED announced its blur willingness to ease further its policy.

Minggu, 10 Oktober 2010

US Dollar Index nearing a Reversal


I bet we reverse at this level near here at least for a short term reaction to the overstretched trend.

Sabtu, 09 Oktober 2010

Price action observations & trading system contemplations

Trending and over extension of the move doesn't compromise the trend momentum.

Different time frames and fibs - now that moves exceeded the conservative projections I focus on the momentum concept as it is very insightful to learn never to fight a roaring trend and always let it go until you see a rising volatility, reversal chart pattern or some other sign of trend weakness.

Some observations on using the 13-MA in a trend.
I have drawn the consolidations that follow the price thrusts. Clear Support & Resistance levels are shown.


Time & Price relationship.
MAs are enveloping the unfolding trend but they lag and this actually helps to project a horizontal range trading after the motive wave until the MA makes up the space and then the trend move ensues.

Jumat, 08 Oktober 2010

Shanghai Composite - Momentum Buy!


China is on the move up - trend momentum is rising and RSI is converging. Once 2700 is cleared we target the 200-DMA.