GBPJPY short trade - 14.02.2008

Brief post of my last trade - based on the 4H chart I entered a short GBPJPY position at 213.19 - however I entered my trade a little early and I was close to getting scared off.

After studying of the Daily chart I assumed that the recent high at 213.88 will pose a good resistance area I decided to double up my short trade and actually added 2/3 short position around 213.80 so that my average price moved up at 213.38.

Soon after the testimony of FED Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson at the Senate Committee DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P all started to slide.

As presumed the GBPJPY upsurge stalled around 213.70/80 and after a brief congestion around 213.30 - 50 it broke thru the 213 level. >> Because of the aggresive leverage involved I squared my position around 212.78 - for +60 pips.

:: Respect to Tonbridge AL (rule:: instant gratification required when excessive leverage is applied).

BG40 Weekly - 17.02.2008

BG40 Weekly chart gives a clear view how the bear market has stalled its decline above the 345 level - a breakout gap support that if broken targets the 260 level where a breakaway from the price base emerged

SOFIX Weekly - 17.02.2008

SOFIX Weekly chart update - bear market rally seems to stall at the previous high around 1420 --- next Support level test comes at 1222 - with scope turned to 968 last Strong base if 1222 gives way..

'Blue chip' SOFIX continues the descent -- Rising triangle breakdown targets the Yearly Support line ~1155

__________

Declining RSI 20 confirms the downtrend momentum.

Update of the broader market index - BG40 unwid.

_________

Targets are set at the projected Descending channel bottom ~ 290 below the strong Support ~350.

What is named Yearly Support ~~ 350 is a mistake as it solid Support because of the Upside gap and the recent low -

- however ~ 270 - where is the projected Channel bottom marks another confluence of technical levels -- predominantly the June 2007 Low which formed a base for the followed bull run -- this should be a very emotional level as it was the first test and I expect a major turnaround after that Gap is closed.

SOFIX Weekly - 01.02.2008

The 'blue-chip' index SOFIX just like the broader market index BG40 shows more downside to be seen before a strong base is set for a reversal to the long term uptrend.

Basic elements like the cross of the 20 & 50 week MAs confirm this imminent scenario and MACD points to a continuation of the downward momentum.

A good point for a reversal and building a solid base should be the 1150 level where we have a confluence of a Long term trend line support and a major low.

Of course we can't argue with the tape - market will show if I am right or wrong.

BG40 Weekly - 01.02.2008

Here we have the Weekly chart of the broader market - BG40.

---------

On intraday basis the market shows some signs of strength - also on Friday US markets shrugged off the -17k NFP (+ 70k expected) and focused on the 44.6 billion deal in which Microsoft offered to buy Yahoo.

...............

Anyway the weekly chart has some technical inclination to show more of a drop before resuming the upward trend represented by the long term trend line support that comes around 310 / 320.

MACD hasn't signalled any reversal of the downward momentum and I assume we have to first close the gap around 310 where the tredn line support will help to develop a strong base for reversal.