Crude Oil - Support turned Resistance

USD Index trending down - Always go with the trend!

Here is a Daily USD Index chart with an interesting cyclical points which imply the weakness is here to stay.

Pls note the Parallel Channel (Blue lines) has been breached 2 days in a row with a clear target sub 76..

The slope of the 21-Day MA only adds up to Acceleration of the present trend.

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Here is a Weekly USDX chart.

The present pattern shapes up as a Falling Wedge (Which typically has Bullish implications) but it depends on if the week will close below the T/L as it is breaking it to the downside at present.

Lower there is another Low just below 76 and then 74.20/30.
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On a side note just psychologically interesting that this has been trending for a long time and people should have been conditioned for the USD weakness - in spite there is constant 'fight' against the flow. I am extremely interested to watch what the mass 'contrarian' thought will have as final resolution.

EUR/USD False Breakout?

Daily chart shows the consolidation channel's top range being challenged.

Technically it looks like a Ascending Wedge which usually resolves into a steep drop. With the non-convincing price action of Gold around the $1000 figure it hints we might have a false breakout. However I remain on watch for what goes next:

it's either 1.4550 or 1.1.4350 that would give direction.

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here is an alternative charting view - a parallel channel with projected Resistance top around 1.46. However I keep in mind the market made 3 Up-days and might need a recess. Again a break of 1.4550 or 1.4350 would clear this case.

COPPER runs into tough Resistance

Monthly COPPER chart.

I post it as I see a similarity in the Wedge formation that was completed by a steep drop.

The other more pertaining to the present moment observation is that the last Month has just filled in the September 2008 Gap and now it is possible that there is an Island Reversal since it runs into tough Resistance (end of 2007 lows and the 2008 gap).

GOLD in breakout or Ascending Wedge in process?

Here is a Weekly GOLD chart.

In RED is the possible Ascending Wedge formation. This outcome implies a steep fall once the supports gives in.

In Green is the observed Symmetry of the move from $420 -> $720. The the Breakout and the current Range $720 <-> $1000.

It Reminds me actually a skewed variation of a Bearish Bow Tie formation.

US Dollar Index charts

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A few hints about the direction of the USD index are:
- DMI is about to give a buy signal
- RSI pops above mid level

However the 78 - 79 range is still intact so the price is neutral atm and pivoting 2 weeks around the middle of the 78/79 range as seen on the chart..

To me it looks like bottoming and however in this business you always need confirmation before you commit - otherwise its called gambling - so I would like to see a 20&50 Day MAs reach a Golden Cross which most likely would coincide with a breakout above the Short term Resistance around 79.50/60 -- it's obvious how nicely the 50-Day MA held the rise 2 weeks ago - so let's watch for the next test.

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USDX Monthly chart is exremely interesting to me as I have no experience trading off such Long term time frames.

My first impression is that until the price regains the 80/81 area it is still bearish as it is lingering below the central range area as marked by the horisontal channel lines.

So it is a game of patience as to see if last month's candlestick might be taken for a near-Doji and might be a signal for reversal.

A break & close below 78 negates this scenario.

Natural Gas Trend

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Daily chart suggests exhaustion of the current trend. It however looks very neat and orderly and I assume there might be some acceleration at this stage.

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The Monthly chart however gives a clue of the potential of this trend move.

As it is at 7-year lows there is enough reason to me that it might test pre 2002 sub $2.00 lows.