So how did you get introduced to technical analysis?
About the time I graduated from MIT, I read an article by technician Richard Donchian that intrigued me. He demonstrated how a diversified simple five- and 20-day moving average crossover system made a respectable rate of return. That idea — the idea of an automatic mechanical moneymaking machine — fascinated me. So I bought some block time at a local computer service, spent my evenings punching up cards from The Wall Street Journal and began to reproduce Donchian's results. I tried varying the parameter sets and found that other combinations also worked. I noticed that longer-term smoothing worked pretty well, while transaction costs seemed to chop up shorter-term systems.
And then what did you do?
In the early 1970s, I went to work for a wire house. I would go in on weekends to use the IBM 360/65 accounting mainframe to run tests. I punched cards and ran batch jobs in FORTRAN 4. I managed to test four types of systems on about 50 different parameter sets on eight commodities going back a decade. It took me half a year. To show you how much computers have changed the way we do things, these days it might take one weekend on a PC.
So what did you do with that information?
Well, eventually, the management of the wire house packaged a product around my research. The problem was, my boss was unable to follow the system and his boss was more interested in souping up the system to generate more commissions. I told them their best move was to make money for their customers. No sale! Not only that, my boss reneged on his handshake that they would give me 10% of the commissions generated from the system. I got disgusted with them all and left. So at age 23, I went out on my own with about a half-dozen accounts in the $10,000-25,000 range. A few years later, I checked back with the boys at the wire house. They had hundreds of sales agents raising money for their souped-up rewrite of my system. I had more money under management than they did, and mine came from internal growth of my original accounts. I felt exonerated and glad I had escaped from a system based so heavily on commissions.
And since then?
I still test systems and think about the markets. I still collect data. I still manage money.
What is the secret to your success? What do you consider to be good mental skills for successful trading?
The biggest secret about success is that there isn't any big secret about it, or if there is, then it's a secret from me, too. The idea of searching for some secret for trading success misses the point. It's like golf. Some golfers play to spend time outdoors. They hang out with their cronies, become one with nature, study the greens, reconnect with their muscles, drop into focused concentration and, incidentally, pick up a birdie or two. For others, it's an exercise in finding some new Holy Grail putter. Different strokes for different folks!
In that case, what can an individual do to become a successful trader?
The "doing" part of trading is simple. You just pick up the phone and place orders. The "being" part is a bit more subtle. It's like being an athlete. It's commitment arid mission. To the committed, a world of support appears. All manner of unforeseen assistance materializes to support and propel the committed to meet grand destiny.
Should a person focus his or her time on developing mechanical or non-mechanical (judgmental) methods?
Judgmental systems are inherently mechanical. Gut traders trade according to set rules of attitude, approach and personality. But I also feel that mechanical systems are inherently judgmental. System traders typically use judgment for the enormously important tasks of rolling forward, changing bet size and adding or deleting instruments.
The point is, no real conflict exists between judgment and mechanical trading. A conscious trader is aware of money management algorithms, trading systems and the need for supportive relationships. He maintains his knowledge of broad and local economic trends and remains aware of his feelings. He is also aware of how his own personality works and creates a workable ecology between himself and the world around him.
If you don't use a mechanical trading system, have you built a set of rules to trade by? What are they?
I have many rules and some higher laws. Some of the rules are: Trade with the long-term trend. Cut your losses. Let your profits ride. Bet as much as you can handle and no more.
What do you mean by "higher laws"?
I feel that higher laws and rules govern much of my trading. There is a higher law that commitment and service favor performance. There is a higher law that greed and selfishness impede it. I feel I am in tune with these laws when things just seem to click. Other times I feel out of sync, as if I'm pushing a dull mower through tall wet grass.
Next to these higher laws, trading rules seem rather insignificant. Are price moves random? Is there any basis for trends? What makes prices move? ะก feel the "aha! " process lies at the heart of price change .
For instance, consider the series: OTTFFSSE. What is the next letter? This puzzle creates tension — until you see the first letters of the ordinal numbers — one, two. "Aha!" you say. A lot happens during an "aha." The puzzle dies and the tension dissipates. A societal "aha! " drives price. Read the newspapers and the news magazines during a major move. At first, no one gets why the move is happening. There's a lot of confusion. Part of the move's way up, some people get it. At the end, everybody gets it. The tension is resolved and the move ends.
Aha. I'll have to think about that. Can you tell us how you set stop-loss points?
Before I enter a trade, I set stops at a point at which the chart sours.
What about starting capital? How much money should a person have before starting to trade?
Good money management is equity invariant. I'd ask a trader who thinks he needs a certain amount before he can trade exactly what amount he would need to stop trading.
What are some of your favorite books that people should consider reading?
Through the years I have gained tremendous insight, perspective, skills, inspiration and strength from books. A short list of some of my favorite books about the markets would have to include Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles McKay; Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre; and The Crowd by Gustare Le Bon.
Successful trading can be thought of as a business. Your new focus is running Technical Tools. Can you draw some co mparisons between trading and running a business?
Yes. I find a lot of similarities between trading and business. In trading, I have learned to ride the long-term trend, cut losses and manage money. In the case of Technical Tools, our customers, suppliers, competition and trade publications such as STOCKS & COMMODITIES indicate the long-term trend and help point to where we should be heading as a company in this industry. When I hire someone, it is usually on a trial basis until a strong "trend" of productivity sets in. Cutting losses in business has to do with discontinuing unprofitable products. Firing, also like cutting losses, is tough on the emotions and vital to the eventual success of all involved. Managing money means spending less than we make as well as not betting the ranch on just one idea. I find that the principles of sound trading have close analogs in running a business.
As Technical Tools develops I envision it as part of an enterprise in which trading and business converge. Lately, I have been beating the drum to call together a trading tribe, a kind of support group that borrows from tribal traditions as a means of cultivating group participation. Readers can write me in care of Technical Tools if they are interested in finding out more about this.
Running a business like a tribe sounds pretty unique. Thank you for your time, Ed.
You're welcome.
