Losses are hard to handle once they overwhelm you...
Just got to train a couple of months Daoist Taiji in Wudangshan - the birthplace of Zhang SanFeng Taiji.
On 24.10.2008 the day all the markets were liquidating and saw huge losses I lost my GFT account of 6000 USD.
I was again trading against the trend and my positions were way over-leveraged..
Then after the range as already 350 pips in GBPUSD who could think it would make another 300 pips more... Crazy stuff but nobody to blame for this stuff.
Trying to get back to basics and to fix the long time issues I had been putting aside while it was easy to make money just averaging out of the daily range trading..
So back to school. and back to hard training.
Minggu, 26 Oktober 2008
Senin, 13 Oktober 2008
FX & Futures LOSSES... 13.10.2008
just to make a note of how much money I made and lost these 2 last months:
:: in the end of spring - April 2008 I depostied 10k USD in GFT --outcome:
1. in August I made 55k - withdrew 7k -
2. again made it to 55k and lost it on a single trade in 5 minutes when the GBPUSD daily range from 300 pip overextended to 400+ pips ina liquidation trade..........
3. deposited 15k USD again made it to 21 k and lost themm in a trade
4. Oct 2008 deposited 15k USD more -- made them to 34k - withdrew 6k
5. these left 27k - I made into 38 k the same week and then lost them today in a single trade while shorting GBPUSD - AGAINST THE TREND!!!!!!!
6. the 9K I had in CMC CFD trading account I made to 12k and lost them while trying to buy the bottom in S&P and Dow futures... AGAIN AGAINST the TREND!!!
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how much money I have to lose to get this simple idea that to be consistently successful I have to act right :
1. discipline -- to wait for the right moment and for the opportunity to reveal
2. discipline -- to use leverage only when in profit and when the edge is in my favor!!!
3. discipline -- to develop scanerio and risk level and respect the RISK levels and initial strategy!!!
4. disicipline -- to use leverage only to the level I can manage the drawdown and to be able to come back if I am wrong or late to bail out...
5. DISCIPLINE -- to make the hard choise of being with the trend - buy high - sell higher if in trend mode!!!
6. TREND - to start trading first define the market mode :: Trend or Range ?
:: in the end of spring - April 2008 I depostied 10k USD in GFT --outcome:
1. in August I made 55k - withdrew 7k -
2. again made it to 55k and lost it on a single trade in 5 minutes when the GBPUSD daily range from 300 pip overextended to 400+ pips ina liquidation trade..........
3. deposited 15k USD again made it to 21 k and lost themm in a trade
4. Oct 2008 deposited 15k USD more -- made them to 34k - withdrew 6k
5. these left 27k - I made into 38 k the same week and then lost them today in a single trade while shorting GBPUSD - AGAINST THE TREND!!!!!!!
6. the 9K I had in CMC CFD trading account I made to 12k and lost them while trying to buy the bottom in S&P and Dow futures... AGAIN AGAINST the TREND!!!
........................................................................................................................
........................................................................................................................
how much money I have to lose to get this simple idea that to be consistently successful I have to act right :
1. discipline -- to wait for the right moment and for the opportunity to reveal
2. discipline -- to use leverage only when in profit and when the edge is in my favor!!!
3. discipline -- to develop scanerio and risk level and respect the RISK levels and initial strategy!!!
4. disicipline -- to use leverage only to the level I can manage the drawdown and to be able to come back if I am wrong or late to bail out...
5. DISCIPLINE -- to make the hard choise of being with the trend - buy high - sell higher if in trend mode!!!
6. TREND - to start trading first define the market mode :: Trend or Range ?
SOFIX - 585 - 10.10.2008
I saw Sofix 575 had a support level..
I entered when Sofix close at 585 on 10.10.2008
6000 shares - MONBAT /5MB/
4000 shares - CHIM /6C4/
3000 shares - EUBG /4EH/
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today monday 13.10.2008 seems a reversal is in the works - a bull rally in bear market actually
Dow closed like 800 points up - from a bottom at 7 890 - to a intrtaday high at 9 440...
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however my losses in FX and futures keep me crashing - my 'wealth' shinks too fast in the last 2 months...
I entered when Sofix close at 585 on 10.10.2008
6000 shares - MONBAT /5MB/
4000 shares - CHIM /6C4/
3000 shares - EUBG /4EH/
------------------------------------
today monday 13.10.2008 seems a reversal is in the works - a bull rally in bear market actually
Dow closed like 800 points up - from a bottom at 7 890 - to a intrtaday high at 9 440...
----------------------
however my losses in FX and futures keep me crashing - my 'wealth' shinks too fast in the last 2 months...
Rabu, 10 September 2008
SOFIX and BG Stock Exchange
well my secong or maybe third attempt to long the SOFIX shares proved another failure and I exited in the end of August 2008 with a 30% loss.
I tried to long CHIM /6C4 at below 7.95 - had 10 000 shares at that price and then some 2000 more in the 8.70 and 8.50 area -- unfortunately the move was weak and I even had to sell from 8.35 till 7.95 so it was a failure again.
The big stake of 8800 share in EUBG/4EH I had for a repo-credit that I bought around 5.20 I had to sell around 4.80.
FIB / 5F4 also was weak and I sold it around 5.85 but now it looks better and holds above 6...
I watch the main indices close as I'm very intereseted how the post bubble effects will affect the market.
I tried to long CHIM /6C4 at below 7.95 - had 10 000 shares at that price and then some 2000 more in the 8.70 and 8.50 area -- unfortunately the move was weak and I even had to sell from 8.35 till 7.95 so it was a failure again.
The big stake of 8800 share in EUBG/4EH I had for a repo-credit that I bought around 5.20 I had to sell around 4.80.
FIB / 5F4 also was weak and I sold it around 5.85 but now it looks better and holds above 6...
I watch the main indices close as I'm very intereseted how the post bubble effects will affect the market.
4 September 2008 -- Black Swan upon me -- 55k USD loss
it was Sept 4, 2008 when i was struck by the Black Swan event.
I lost all my trading stake of 55 000 USD in blink of an eye on a 'sure trade'
the event: I longed eurusd & gbpusd at the session lows after they had both descented 200+ pips so I felt pretty sure I would get a little profit riding the quick retracement
needless to say I was stupid enough not to use stops!!!
for a minute the prices backed down so I loaded more to a 1 mio per both positions - then once they reached breakeven they both stalled -- then I thought 'they are pretty weak maybe I'd better sqaure here and wait and see'
well I didn't square - instead they started free-falling and I kept buying until I had 5 mio Long GBPUSD and 3 mio long EURUSD and then they just kept falling until the dayly range extended to the surprizing 300+ pips in both...
pretty unusual event -- but that doesn't excuse my mistake not to manage my risk thru stops!
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well what can I say - just as I fel sure in myself and I thought I had a basic system to trade I lost it all - now again I have to start from a scratch
in the last 6-7 months I turned 10k stake into 57k and it would be even greater since I drew on the account around 21k...
nominal return was 550%
........
well man, next time please do it better!
I lost all my trading stake of 55 000 USD in blink of an eye on a 'sure trade'
the event: I longed eurusd & gbpusd at the session lows after they had both descented 200+ pips so I felt pretty sure I would get a little profit riding the quick retracement
needless to say I was stupid enough not to use stops!!!
for a minute the prices backed down so I loaded more to a 1 mio per both positions - then once they reached breakeven they both stalled -- then I thought 'they are pretty weak maybe I'd better sqaure here and wait and see'
well I didn't square - instead they started free-falling and I kept buying until I had 5 mio Long GBPUSD and 3 mio long EURUSD and then they just kept falling until the dayly range extended to the surprizing 300+ pips in both...
pretty unusual event -- but that doesn't excuse my mistake not to manage my risk thru stops!
---------
well what can I say - just as I fel sure in myself and I thought I had a basic system to trade I lost it all - now again I have to start from a scratch
in the last 6-7 months I turned 10k stake into 57k and it would be even greater since I drew on the account around 21k...
nominal return was 550%
........
well man, next time please do it better!
Senin, 07 Juli 2008
Stock Portfolio Rebalancing - 07.07.2008
Today I rebalanced my Stock Portfolio on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange - Sofia.
I dumped the old holdings of:
1. Alcomet
2. Doverie United Holding
they were both very poorly performing - the Alcomet P/E has risen above 58 and the basic materials were giving it a huge toll over earnings.
Doverie I believe is watering the stock holdings as he new shares are in the market the value has long ago disappeared.
>>> I know I was dead late for this move - worse I don't find any reason for consolation - I was reckless and overstayed bad trades
Alcomet - long average at 1760 for around ~ 9.30
liquidated ~ 6.70
Doverie - long 2000 around 10 - liquidated at 6.60-80
>>> all the freed capital is invested now in the doubled position of Eurohold - today 8888 shares.
I dumped the old holdings of:
1. Alcomet
2. Doverie United Holding
they were both very poorly performing - the Alcomet P/E has risen above 58 and the basic materials were giving it a huge toll over earnings.
Doverie I believe is watering the stock holdings as he new shares are in the market the value has long ago disappeared.
>>> I know I was dead late for this move - worse I don't find any reason for consolation - I was reckless and overstayed bad trades
Alcomet - long average at 1760 for around ~ 9.30
liquidated ~ 6.70
Doverie - long 2000 around 10 - liquidated at 6.60-80
>>> all the freed capital is invested now in the doubled position of Eurohold - today 8888 shares.
Senin, 30 Juni 2008
Possible Double Bottom formations - 30.06.2008
Here are the major and the broad indices - Sofix & BG40.
The charts suggest possible Double bottom formations >>
thus I decided to hold my investments in the major companies.
The portfoilo consists of 9 positions with slight bias to the financial sector as I suspected a rebound there to be stronger than the market as a whole.
However I realise the stock market is actually dominated by the infractructure companies and financials seems to have lost their shine.
The plan is to liquidate the BSE stock holdings on the subsequent rallies as I expect the overall economic conditions to get better for the time being in the US and the Euro zone but the Autumn to bring some very bad consequences of the credit crisis expansion.
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